Global energy scenarios such as the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) are among the most influential reference points for energy policy and investment. However, their accuracy differs strongly across technologies. A recent ex-post analysis of 30 years of WEO scenarios (1993–2022) finds that the IEA forecast overall energy demand rather well, but consistently overestimated fossil fuels and nuclear power while severely underestimating solar PV and wind (Lopez et al., 2025). Why the accuracy of projections differs so much between technologies, however, remains largely unexplained. This thesis takes up that question, while also extending the evidence to transition technologies that have not yet been covered, such as batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps or CCS. On this basis, the thesis aims to explore what drives projection errors and what this means for how scenarios are made and used.

Relevant literature
Lopez, G., Pourjamal, Y., & Breyer, C. (2025). Paving the way towards a sustainable future or
lagging behind? An ex-post analysis of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy
Outlook. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 212.

Key research tasks
• Build a dataset of historical technology-level projections from the IEA World Energy Outlook and Energy Technology Projections, including technologies not yet covered in the literature (e.g. batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps, CCS)
• Depending on the student’s interests and data access, extend the analysis to other outlooks (e.g. IRENA, BloombergNEF, industry outlooks) to explore the political economy of technology scenario-making
• Quantify projection errors against realized developments across technologies, scenario types, and publication years
• Identify and test competing explanations for projection accuracy
• Derive implications for scenario developers, users, and policymakers

Requirements
• Strong interest in energy transitions, technological innovation and data analysis
• Background in economics, public policy, energy systems, environmental sciences, or other relevant disciplines
• Experience in quantitative data analysis or a strong willingness for further self-study are required
• Fluency in English is essential

Setup
• You will be supervised by Linda Widdel and Prof. Florian Egli
• Access to an interdisciplinary team with extensive expertise in climate and energy policy and state-of-the-art research methods
• Involvement in research with direct links to policymakers and policy impact
• An exciting community at the School of Social Sciences and Technology
• Close collaboration with the TUM Think Tank
• Access to a lovely office space right in the heart of Munich

How to apply

Please send your motivation for the topic (max. 1 page), your CV and your up-to-date transcript of records to linda.widdel@tum.de as a single PDF file.

We evaluate applications on a rolling basis starting on Oct 1, 2026, and until the position is filled. The start date is as soon as possible.

Die Finanzierung der Energietransformation hängt maßgeblich von stabilen und verlässlichen politischen Rahmenbedingungen ab. Unsicherheiten, regulatorische Anpassungen und Richtungsänderungen können Investitionsentscheidungen beeinflussen und sich direkt auf Finanzierungskosten sowie die Bankability von Projekten auswirken. Im Rahmen dieser Masterarbeit werden die Auswirkungen politischer Unsicherheit auf Finanzierungsentscheidungen systematisch analysiert. Die Masterarbeit wird in einem Co‑Creation‑Prozess mit Finanzakteuren und ggf. Projektentwicklern.

Die Aufgabenstellung umfasst dabei unter anderem:

• Analyse des Einflusses politischer und regulatorischer Unsicherheit auf Finanzierungskonditionen (z. B. Risikoaufschläge, Projektanzahl)
• Methodenentwicklung und strukturierter Datenerhebungsprozess
• Untersuchung volkswirtschaftlicher Mehrkosten durch erhöhte Unsicherheiten
• Bewertung aktueller regulatorischer Rahmenbedingungen für ausgewählte Technologien (z. B. BESS, Elektrolyseure, erneuerbare Energien)
• Mehr Details und Informationen zur Bewerbung hier.

Was wir Dir bieten

• Betreuung durch die Forschungsgesellschaft für Energiewirtschaft (FfE) und PPGT
• Eng betreute Forschungsarbeit mit direktem Praxisbezug
• Zusammenarbeit mit Praxispartnern aus der Finanzwirtschaft (und ggf. Realwirtschaft) im Rahmen eines Co‑Creation‑Prozesses
• Möglichkeit, eigene Schwerpunkte und Fragestellungen in einem motivierten und interdisziplinären Team aktiv einzubringen

Kontakt

Patrick Zeitinger, PPGT (patrick.zeitinger@tum.de) und Regina Reck, FfE (rreck@ffe.de)

Biodiversity loss is a major environmental and economic risk (Dasgupta, 2021). In political science, issue salience (i.e. the importance attached to a policy problem) is understood as one of the central mechanisms through which such risks translate into agenda-setting, political priority and policy change (Downs, 1972; Kingdon, 1984).

Existing research on public attention to biodiversity loss has shown that biodiversity receives substantially less media coverage than climate change (Legagneux et al., 2018), and that attention is disproportionately concentrated on charismatic species (Troudet et al., 2017). Other studies have examined public reactions to specific biodiversity crises, such as insect decline in Germany (Felgentreff et al., 2023). However, less is known about how media attention to biodiversity loss varies across species, whether this attention reflects documented ecological threats, and how the drivers of biodiversity loss and potential policy responses are framed in public discourse.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to systematically analyse large volumes of text and identify patterns in media attention and political framing.

In this context, we offer a master's thesis project on the media salience of biodiversity loss in Germany, using LLM-based text analysis to investigate how biodiversity decline is represented in news coverage and how this representation relates to documented ecological risks. The thesis will focus on:

1. Reviewing the literature on issue salience, agenda-setting, media framing and conservation culturomics, with a particular focus on public attention to biodiversity loss.
2. Constructing a dataset of German news coverage to quantify how biodiversity loss is discussed across selected species or species groups.
3. Applying and validating LLM-based text analysis to identify biodiversity-related content, drivers of biodiversity decline and proposed policy solutions. This includes developing a classification framework and assessing its reliability against manually annotated data.
4. Analysing patterns of media attention and framing, including differences across species or species groups and their relationship with documented ecological threats (e.g. national Red Lists).

The specific research questions, selection of species and empirical approach will be developed jointly with the successful candidate. The project will emphasise methodological rigour, transparency and reproducibility.

Relevant literature

• Legagneux, P., et al. (2018). Our house is burning: discrepancy in climate change vs. biodiversity coverage in the media as compared to scientific literature. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 5, 175.
• Troudet, J., Grandcolas, P., Blin, A., Vignes-Lebbe, R., & Legendre, F. (2017). Taxonomic bias in biodiversity data and societal preferences. Scientific Reports, 7, 9132.
• Heseltine, M., & Clemm von Hohenberg, B. (2024). Large language models as a substitute for human experts in annotating political text. Research & Politics, 11(1).

Requirements

• Strong interest in public policy, biodiversity conservation and computational social science
• Background in political science, public policy, environmental sciences, economics or other relevant disciplines
• Interest in applying large language models and computational text analysis to empirical research; prior experience with these methods is an advantage
• Ability to work independently with large datasets
• Fluency in English is essential; German language skills are highly desirable given the focus on German news media

Setup

• You will be supervised by Linda Widdel and Prof. Florian Egli
• Access to an interdisciplinary team with extensive expertise in climate and energy policy and state-of-the-art research methods
• Involvement in research with direct links to policymakers and policy impact
• An exciting community at the School of Social Sciences and Technology
• Close collaboration with the TUM Think Tank
• Access to a lovely office space right in the heart of Munich

How to apply

Please send your motivation for the topic (max. 1 page), your CV and your up-to-date transcript of records to linda.widdel@tum.de as a single PDF file.

We evaluate applications on a rolling basis until the position is filled. The start date is as soon as possible.

Climate Finance

6 ECTS

Climate change is one of the critical challenges of this century. In this course, students will learn about the role of finance for the low carbon transition in developing as well as industrialized countries. We will discuss existing policies, their effectiveness and the underlying political economy challenges to implement them.

Sustainability and Development: Policies, Impacts and Research Methods

3 ECTS

Developing countries face both opportunities and challenges in sustainable transitions. For instance, while they offer potential for carbon reduction, more resource equity, and economic diversification, they may also induce short-term costs, be limited by technological capabilities, and require policy and behavior change. This course focuses on the methods and tools needed to evaluate the impact of policies aimed at fostering such change in developing countries, as well as the broader effects these transitions have on people, economies, and the environment.

Designing Public Policy – Special Issue: Nature’s Design Lab: Crafting Policies and Change in the Wild

with Prof. Annette Diefenthaler

2 ECTS

Our current reality is shaped by complex challenges that require us to fundamentally rethink our relationship with the planet we live on. In this module, you will embark on a learning experience beyond the confines of the classroom: Students from diverse disciplines are invited to an immersive journey into nature, design, and innovation, fostering an environment of creative thinking and interdisciplinary collaboration.

Financial Economics of Climate and Sustainability

6 ECTS (only for PhD and Postdocs)

The course is part of a global initiative led by Harvard University to educate the next generation of climate finance scholars. It covers a range of topics, from the integration of climate change impacts into economic and financial theories, sustainable investment, climate-related risk assessment, as well as the economic and financial dynamics of corporations, households, and financial institutions in the context of decarbonization. The course runs weekly from February 4 to April 29, 2025, for more information please visit TUMOnline. To apply, please send an email with subject: “Application to FECS class 2025” to clemens.lehofer@tum.de. The email should contain the title of your PhD or main research project and a 200-word motivation. Deadline for applications is 9 January 2025.

Climate Finance

6 ECTS

Climate change is one of the critical challenges of this century. In this course, students will learn about the role of finance for the low carbon transition in developing as well as industrialized countries. We will discuss existing policies, their effectiveness and the underlying political economy challenges to implement them.

Sustainability and Development: Policies, Impacts and Research Methods

3 ECTS

Developing countries face both opportunities and challenges in sustainable transitions. For instance, while they offer potential for carbon reduction, more resource equity, and economic diversification, they may also induce short-term costs, be limited by technological capabilities, and require policy and behavior change. This course focuses on the methods and tools needed to evaluate the impact of policies aimed at fostering such change in developing countries, as well as the broader effects these transitions have on people, economies, and the environment.

Designing Public Policy – Special Issue: Nature’s Design Lab: Crafting Policies and Change in the Wild

with Prof. Annette Diefenthaler & Martin Wählisch (United Nations)

2 ECTS

Our current reality is shaped by complex challenges that require us to fundamentally rethink our relationship with the planet we live on. In this module, you will embark on a learning experience beyond the confines of the classroom: Students from diverse disciplines are invited to an immersive journey into nature, design, and innovation, fostering an environment of creative thinking and interdisciplinary collaboration.

Financial Economics of Climate and Sustainability

6 ECTS (only for PhD and Postdocs)

The course is part of a global initiative led by Harvard University to educate the next generation of climate finance scholars. It covers a range of topics, from the integration of climate change impacts into economic and financial theories, sustainable investment, climate-related risk assessment, as well as the economic and financial dynamics of corporations, households, and financial institutions in the context of decarbonization. The course runs weekly from February 4 to April 29, 2025, for more information please visit TUMOnline.

To apply, please send an email with subject: “Application to FECS class 2025” to clemens.lehofer@tum.de. The email should contain the title of your PhD or main research project and a 200-word motivation. Deadline for applications is 9 January 2025.